Official Academic Cohort Audit • 18,368 Candidates
IMAT 2026 Full Results Analysis & All 23 Italian Medical Faculties Cutoff Predictions
Definitive multi-year psychometric analysis of 18,368 test-takers across 23 Italian state medical programmes. 3-year score distributions, test-centre audit, and provisional EU & Non-EU cutoffs.
Candidates18,368+36.1% vs 2025
National Mean49.29+8.77 pts right shift
Top 10% Cutoff69.30Dense upper tail
Faculties Tracked23EU & Non-EU
⚠️ STATUTORY NOTICE: Provisional simulation estimates based on MUR DM 1005
All university cutoff scores (EU / Non-EU) and projected score intervals are provisional simulation estimates calibrated to the anonymous national list. They do not constitute final ministerial admission guarantees.
📊 Overall Psychometric Audit (2026 vs 2025)
Biology Mean Surge (+11.7 pts) · Chemistry Time Strain · Pacing Traps
Figure 1.1 • Cohort Distribution Shift
Mean: +8.77 pts shiftMulti-Year Score Density Shift (18,368 Candidates)
Figure 1.2 • Psychometric Audit
Chemistry: +28% DisparitySection Difficulty vs Time Strain Profile (2026 vs 2025)
📈 National Score Distribution & Score Bands
Complete audit of the 18,368 anonymous records published by CINECA
Figure 1.5 • Top Decile Anatomy
Cutoff SaturationAllocation Density in the Top 12% Score Tier (18,368 Pool)
Figure 1.4 • Decision Mathematics
EV > 0 with 2 EliminationsExpected Value Curve: Guessing Penalty vs Elimination
Figure 1.3 • Geographic Regional Dispersion
23 FacultiesItalian Medical Cutoff Tiers & Non-EU Competitiveness Gradient
IMAT 2026 National Ranking & Scrolling Resolution Protocol (MUR DM 1005)
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Interactive Admissions Workbench
23-University IMAT Cutoff Sensitivity & Scroll Predictor
Dynamically models your admission odds across all 23 Italian medical faculties by stress-testing candidate score inflation, quota drift, and citizenship status.
Est. National Rank#16,473
Percentile10.3th
Your Test Score:68.5 / 90.0
30.0 (Min Passing)60.0 (Floor)90.0 (Max)
Citizenship Quota Scheme:Single 1st-choice binding quota
Cohort Difficulty Shift:0 pts
MUR Seat Expansion:+0% seats
University of CagliariSardiniaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria di Cagliari•Seats: 18 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~62.5 pts+6.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
Naples Federico II (Veterinary)CampaniaSpecialized
🏥 Ospedale Veterinario Universitario Didattico•Seats: 2 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~54.5 pts+14.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
University of Bologna (Veterinary)Emilia-RomagnaSpecialized
🏥 Ospedale Veterinario Didattico Ozzano•Seats: 5 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~52.5 pts+16.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
Tor Vergata Tirana Partner CampusAlbaniaSpecialized
🏥 Nostra Signora del Buon Consiglio•Seats: 320 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~27.5 pts+41.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
University of CataniaSicilyTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico G. Rodolico - San Marco•Seats: 40 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~64.5 pts+4.0 margin
Admission Odds88%Round 1 – 2
University of MessinaSicilyTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico Universitario G. Martino•Seats: 61 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~64.2 pts+4.3 margin
Admission Odds88%Round 1 – 2
University of Parma (Piacenza)Emilia-RomagnaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Ospedale Guglielmo da Saliceto (Piacenza)•Seats: 50 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~68.0 pts+0.5 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
Campania Luigi Vanvitelli (Caserta)CampaniaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico Vanvitelli•Seats: 50 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~68.5 pts+0.0 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
Marche Polytechnic (Ancona)MarcheTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 AOU delle Marche (Torrette di Ancona)•Seats: 50 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~66.5 pts+2.0 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
University of Bari Aldo MoroPugliaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico di Bari•Seats: 11 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~68.2 pts+0.3 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
Rome Tor VergataLazioTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Policlinico Tor Vergata•Seats: 20 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~69.5 pts-1.0 deficit
Admission Odds38%Round 6 – 9 (Late Scorrimenti)
University of Siena (Dentistry)TuscanySpecialized
🏥 Policlinico Le Scotte Siena•Seats: 5 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~70.2 pts-1.7 deficit
Admission Odds38%Round 6 – 9 (Late Scorrimenti)
Naples Federico IICampaniaTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Policlinico Federico II•Seats: 45 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~72.2 pts-3.7 deficit
Admission Odds14%Under-subscribed only
University of Turin (Orbassano)PiedmontTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 San Luigi Gonzaga / Molinette•Seats: 32 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~73.5 pts-5.0 deficit
Admission Odds10%Under-subscribed only
University of Milan-BicoccaLombardyTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII (Bergamo)•Seats: 20 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~75.0 pts-6.5 deficit
Admission Odds6%Under-subscribed only
University of Milan (Statale)LombardyTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico di Milano / San Paolo•Seats: 15 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~80.2 pts-11.7 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Pavia (Harvey)LombardyTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico San Matteo•Seats: 40 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~78.2 pts-9.7 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Bologna (BMS)Emilia-RomagnaTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico Sant'Orsola-Malpighi•Seats: 20 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~77.8 pts-9.3 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
Sapienza University of RomeLazioTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico Umberto I•Seats: 13 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~77.0 pts-8.5 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Padua (MedTech)VenetoTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Azienda Ospedale Università Padova•Seats: 15 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~76.0 pts-7.5 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Padua (Medicine)VenetoTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Azienda Ospedaliera di Padova•Seats: 25 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~75.5 pts-7.0 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
Sapienza Rome (Dentistry)LazioSpecialized
🏥 Policlinico Umberto I Odontoiatria•Seats: 6 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~78.5 pts-10.0 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Florence (2026 New)TuscanyTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi•Seats: 0 Non-EU
No seats allocated for this quota
Empirical Stochastics Engine
IMAT 10,000-Iteration Monte Carlo Admission Simulator
Simulates stochastic question mastery, error penalties, distractor elimination odds, and university cutoff variance across 10,000 simulated examinations.
Admission Probability14.3%
Subject Mastery ProfilerDirect Fact Probability
Biology (23 Qs / 34.5 pts):85%
Chemistry (15 Qs / 22.5 pts):78%
Physics & Math (13 Qs / 19.5 pts):65%
Logical Reasoning (5 Qs / 7.5 pts):80%
Reading Skills & GK (4 Qs / 6.0 pts):70%
Guessing & Triage Discipline:
Seats: EU 103 / Non-EU 40Cutoff: ~78.2 pts
Single-choice first preference quota without cross-university scrolling
Mean Score
72.6
Expected value10th Percentile
66.6
Unlucky day50th (Median)
72.7
Standard outcome90th Percentile
78.7
Optimal examSimulated Score Density (Histogram: 10,000 Runs)Target: 78.2 pts
35.0–37.5 pts: 0.0%
37.5–40.0 pts: 0.0%
40.0–42.5 pts: 0.0%
42.5–45.0 pts: 0.0%
45.0–47.5 pts: 0.0%
47.5–50.0 pts: 0.0%
50.0–52.5 pts: 0.0%
52.5–55.0 pts: 0.0%
55.0–57.5 pts: 0.2%
57.5–60.0 pts: 0.5%
60.0–62.5 pts: 1.5%
62.5–65.0 pts: 3.6%
65.0–67.5 pts: 8.6%
67.5–70.0 pts: 13.2%
70.0–72.5 pts: 21.1%
72.5–75.0 pts: 20.0%
75.0–77.5 pts: 15.6%
77.5–80.0 pts: 9.5%
80.0–82.5 pts: 4.6%
82.5–85.0 pts: 1.2%
85.0–87.5 pts: 0.3%
87.5–90.0 pts: 0.0%
35.0 pts62.5 pts90.0 pts
Statistical Diagnosis for University of Pavia (Harvey): High risk of rejection at University of Pavia (Harvey) (14.3% chance). For Non-EU candidates where only 1 university can be selected, consider pivoting to higher-quota institutions (e.g. Messina, Vanvitelli, Parma) or aggressively drilling high-yield calculation modules.
🎯 All 23 Public Medical Faculties: Cutoff Predictions
Calibrated to Bi-Annual Swing, DM 1005 seat quotas, and Non-EU candidate density
| University | Tier | EU Projected Cutoff | Non-EU Projected Cutoff | Official Seats (DM 1005) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Milan (Statale) | Tier 1 (Ultra-Elite) | 71.0 – 73.5 | 79.0 – 81.5 | EU: 60 / Non-EU: 15 |
| University of Pavia (Harvey) | Tier 1 (Ultra-Elite) | 62.5 – 65.5 | 77.0 – 79.5 | EU: 103 / Non-EU: 40 |
| University of Bologna (BMS) | Tier 1 (Ultra-Elite) | 67.0 – 70.0 | 76.5 – 79.5 | EU: 140 / Non-EU: 20 |
| Sapienza University of Rome | Tier 1 (Ultra-Elite) | 67.0 – 70.0 | 75.0 – 79.5 | EU: 52 / Non-EU: 13 |
| University of Milan-Bicocca | Tier 2 (High-Demand) | 69.5 – 72.0 | 73.5 – 77.0 | EU: 40 / Non-EU: 20 |
| University of Padua (Padova) | Tier 2 (High-Demand) | 66.0 – 68.5 | 73.0 – 77.0 | EU: 75 / Non-EU: 25 |
| University of Turin (Orbassano) | Tier 2 (High-Demand) | 64.0 – 66.5 | 72.0 – 75.0 | EU: 73 / Non-EU: 32 |
| Rome Tor Vergata | Tier 2 (High-Demand) | 63.0 – 65.5 | 66.5 – 71.0 | EU: 65 / Non-EU: 20 |
| University of Parma (Piacenza) | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 62.0 – 64.5 | 65.5 – 69.5 | EU: 80 / Non-EU: 50 |
| Naples Federico II | Tier 2 (High-Demand) | 64.5 – 67.5 | 70.5 – 74.0 | EU: 35 / Non-EU: 45 |
| Campania Luigi Vanvitelli (Caserta) | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 61.0 – 63.5 | 66.0 – 70.5 | EU: 70 / Non-EU: 50 |
| Marche Polytechnic (Ancona) | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 63.0 – 65.5 | 64.0 – 68.5 | EU: 30 / Non-EU: 50 |
| University of Messina | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 61.0 – 63.5 | 62.0 – 66.5 | EU: 55 / Non-EU: 61 |
| University of Catania | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 62.5 – 65.5 | 62.0 – 66.5 | EU: 40 / Non-EU: 40 |
| University of Bari Aldo Moro | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 62.0 – 64.5 | 65.0 – 71.5 | EU: 89 / Non-EU: 11 |
| University of Cagliari | Tier 3 (High-Capacity) | 60.0 – 62.5 | 60.0 – 64.5 | EU: 80 / Non-EU: 18 |