官方考生数据深度审计 • 18,368名考生
IMAT 2026 成绩全面分析与意大利23所公立医学院录取分数线预测
基于CINECA公布的18,368名考生全样本数据，深度解析2024-2026三年分值波动趋势、各科目难度及23所公立医学院欧盟与非欧盟录取分数线预测。
总考生人数18,368同比增加 +36.1%
全国平均分49.29+8.77分 右移回弹
前10%门槛分69.30高分段高度集中
监测公立院校23欧盟及非欧盟配额
⚠️ 官方免责声明：本数据为基于MUR法令的统计模拟推算
各大学预测分数线（欧盟/非欧盟配额）均为基于匿名成绩榜单与历史滚动录取规律的概率模拟，不构成意大利教育部或大学的官方最终录取保证。
📊 IMAT 2026 考试试题与考点全景分析
生物均分大幅反弹（+11.7分） · 化学计算陷阱与时间分配挑战
生物板块强势回暖（均分上涨11.7分）
细胞生物学、分子遗传学基础题占比提高，全国考生得分普遍上涨，成为推高本年度录取基础分的最主要推手。
化学多步计算与答题耗时陷阱
化学计算题、化学平衡及有机反应方程式繁琐，极度消耗答题时间，成为65-75分高分梯队的关键分水岭。
物理与数学的选拔分流机制
公式熟练度决定了能否快速拿分，盲目猜测（错误扣0.4分）对排名造成了极大冲击。
Figure 1.1 • Cohort Distribution Shift
Mean: +8.77 pts shiftMulti-Year Score Density Shift (18,368 Candidates)
Figure 1.2 • Psychometric Audit
Chemistry: +28% DisparitySection Difficulty vs Time Strain Profile (2026 vs 2025)
📈 全国成绩分布与高分段密度分析
18,368名考生成绩分段与排名百分比对照
Figure 1.5 • Top Decile Anatomy
Cutoff SaturationAllocation Density in the Top 12% Score Tier (18,368 Pool)
Figure 1.4 • Decision Mathematics
EV > 0 with 2 EliminationsExpected Value Curve: Guessing Penalty vs Elimination
Figure 1.3 • Geographic Regional Dispersion
23 FacultiesItalian Medical Cutoff Tiers & Non-EU Competitiveness Gradient
IMAT 2026 National Ranking & Scrolling Resolution Protocol (MUR DM 1005)
1
IMAT 2026 Examination (60 Qs • 90 pts)
2
CINECA Machine Optical Correction
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Oct 10: Anonymous National Score List (18,368 Candidates)
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Oct 19: Universitaly Portal Login (View Marked Answer Sheet)
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Oct 26: 1st National Nominal Ranking (Graduatoria Nazionale)
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Official Candidate Status
"1st Choice Matched"
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STATUS: ASSEGNATO
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STATUS: PRENOTATO
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STATUS: IN ATTESA
10
4-Day HARD Deadline: Enrol or Permanently Forfeit Seat
11
Candidate Choice
"Enrol Now"
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Enrol at Booked Choice within 4 Days
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Click 'Conferma Interesse' by 12:00 CET Tuesday
14
Weekly Scrolling Rounds (Scorrimenti - Every Wednesday)
Interactive Admissions Workbench
23-University IMAT Cutoff Sensitivity & Scroll Predictor
Dynamically models your admission odds across all 23 Italian medical faculties by stress-testing candidate score inflation, quota drift, and citizenship status.
Est. National Rank#16,473
Percentile10.3th
Your Test Score:68.5 / 90.0
30.0 (Min Passing)60.0 (Floor)90.0 (Max)
Citizenship Quota Scheme:Single 1st-choice binding quota
Cohort Difficulty Shift:0 pts
MUR Seat Expansion:+0% seats
University of CagliariSardiniaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria di Cagliari•Seats: 18 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~62.5 pts+6.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
Naples Federico II (Veterinary)CampaniaSpecialized
🏥 Ospedale Veterinario Universitario Didattico•Seats: 2 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~54.5 pts+14.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
University of Bologna (Veterinary)Emilia-RomagnaSpecialized
🏥 Ospedale Veterinario Didattico Ozzano•Seats: 5 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~52.5 pts+16.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
Tor Vergata Tirana Partner CampusAlbaniaSpecialized
🏥 Nostra Signora del Buon Consiglio•Seats: 320 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~27.5 pts+41.0 margin
Admission Odds98%Round 1 (Day 1)
University of CataniaSicilyTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico G. Rodolico - San Marco•Seats: 40 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~64.5 pts+4.0 margin
Admission Odds88%Round 1 – 2
University of MessinaSicilyTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico Universitario G. Martino•Seats: 61 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~64.2 pts+4.3 margin
Admission Odds88%Round 1 – 2
University of Parma (Piacenza)Emilia-RomagnaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Ospedale Guglielmo da Saliceto (Piacenza)•Seats: 50 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~68.0 pts+0.5 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
Campania Luigi Vanvitelli (Caserta)CampaniaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico Vanvitelli•Seats: 50 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~68.5 pts+0.0 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
Marche Polytechnic (Ancona)MarcheTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 AOU delle Marche (Torrette di Ancona)•Seats: 50 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~66.5 pts+2.0 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
University of Bari Aldo MoroPugliaTier 3 (High-Capacity)
🏥 Policlinico di Bari•Seats: 11 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~68.2 pts+0.3 margin
Admission Odds68%Round 3 – 5
Rome Tor VergataLazioTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Policlinico Tor Vergata•Seats: 20 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~69.5 pts-1.0 deficit
Admission Odds38%Round 6 – 9 (Late Scorrimenti)
University of Siena (Dentistry)TuscanySpecialized
🏥 Policlinico Le Scotte Siena•Seats: 5 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~70.2 pts-1.7 deficit
Admission Odds38%Round 6 – 9 (Late Scorrimenti)
Naples Federico IICampaniaTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Policlinico Federico II•Seats: 45 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~72.2 pts-3.7 deficit
Admission Odds14%Under-subscribed only
University of Turin (Orbassano)PiedmontTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 San Luigi Gonzaga / Molinette•Seats: 32 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~73.5 pts-5.0 deficit
Admission Odds10%Under-subscribed only
University of Milan-BicoccaLombardyTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII (Bergamo)•Seats: 20 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~75.0 pts-6.5 deficit
Admission Odds6%Under-subscribed only
University of Milan (Statale)LombardyTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico di Milano / San Paolo•Seats: 15 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~80.2 pts-11.7 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Pavia (Harvey)LombardyTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico San Matteo•Seats: 40 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~78.2 pts-9.7 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Bologna (BMS)Emilia-RomagnaTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico Sant'Orsola-Malpighi•Seats: 20 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~77.8 pts-9.3 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
Sapienza University of RomeLazioTier 1 (Ultra-Elite)
🏥 Policlinico Umberto I•Seats: 13 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~77.0 pts-8.5 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Padua (MedTech)VenetoTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Azienda Ospedale Università Padova•Seats: 15 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~76.0 pts-7.5 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Padua (Medicine)VenetoTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Azienda Ospedaliera di Padova•Seats: 25 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~75.5 pts-7.0 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
Sapienza Rome (Dentistry)LazioSpecialized
🏥 Policlinico Umberto I Odontoiatria•Seats: 6 Non-EU
Adjusted Cutoff~78.5 pts-10.0 deficit
Admission Odds5%Under-subscribed only
University of Florence (2026 New)TuscanyTier 2 (High-Demand)
🏥 Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi•Seats: 0 Non-EU
No seats allocated for this quota
Empirical Stochastics Engine
IMAT 10,000-Iteration Monte Carlo Admission Simulator
Simulates stochastic question mastery, error penalties, distractor elimination odds, and university cutoff variance across 10,000 simulated examinations.
Admission Probability14.7%
Subject Mastery ProfilerDirect Fact Probability
Biology (23 Qs / 34.5 pts):85%
Chemistry (15 Qs / 22.5 pts):78%
Physics & Math (13 Qs / 19.5 pts):65%
Logical Reasoning (5 Qs / 7.5 pts):80%
Reading Skills & GK (4 Qs / 6.0 pts):70%
Guessing & Triage Discipline:
Seats: EU 103 / Non-EU 40Cutoff: ~78.2 pts
Single-choice first preference quota without cross-university scrolling
Mean Score
72.6
Expected value10th Percentile
66.2
Unlucky day50th (Median)
73.0
Standard outcome90th Percentile
78.7
Optimal examSimulated Score Density (Histogram: 10,000 Runs)Target: 78.2 pts
35.0–37.5 pts: 0.0%
37.5–40.0 pts: 0.0%
40.0–42.5 pts: 0.0%
42.5–45.0 pts: 0.0%
45.0–47.5 pts: 0.0%
47.5–50.0 pts: 0.0%
50.0–52.5 pts: 0.0%
52.5–55.0 pts: 0.0%
55.0–57.5 pts: 0.1%
57.5–60.0 pts: 0.7%
60.0–62.5 pts: 1.9%
62.5–65.0 pts: 3.8%
65.0–67.5 pts: 9.0%
67.5–70.0 pts: 12.7%
70.0–72.5 pts: 19.1%
72.5–75.0 pts: 20.5%
75.0–77.5 pts: 15.7%
77.5–80.0 pts: 10.4%
80.0–82.5 pts: 4.5%
82.5–85.0 pts: 1.2%
85.0–87.5 pts: 0.3%
87.5–90.0 pts: 0.0%
35.0 pts62.5 pts90.0 pts
Statistical Diagnosis for University of Pavia (Harvey): High risk of rejection at University of Pavia (Harvey) (14.7% chance). For Non-EU candidates where only 1 university can be selected, consider pivoting to higher-quota institutions (e.g. Messina, Vanvitelli, Parma) or aggressively drilling high-yield calculation modules.
🎯 意大利23所公立医学院录取分数线预测表
综合隔年波动模型、招生名额及非欧盟第一志愿竞争压力测算
| 医学院项目名称 | 竞争梯队 | 欧盟预测分数线 | 非欧盟预测分数线 | 招生配额 (DM 1005) | 2026年报考动向与深度分析 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Milan (Statale) | 第一梯队 (顶尖名校) | 71.0 – 73.5 | 79.0 – 81.5 | EU: 60 / Non-EU: 15 | 全国顶尖标杆医学院，高分考生高度密集，欧盟与非欧盟分数线均居全国首位 |
| University of Pavia (Harvey) | 第一梯队 (顶尖名校) | 62.5 – 65.5 | 77.0 – 79.5 | EU: 103 / Non-EU: 40 | 高容量欧盟名额（103席）缓解了欧盟线涨幅，但非欧盟名额竞争依旧极其残酷 |
| University of Bologna (BMS) | 第一梯队 (顶尖名校) | 67.0 – 70.0 | 76.5 – 79.5 | EU: 140 / Non-EU: 20 | 从2025年的低点强劲反弹，极高的国际知名度吸引了全球顶尖考生报考 |
| Sapienza University of Rome | 第一梯队 (顶尖名校) | 67.0 – 70.0 | 75.0 – 79.5 | EU: 52 / Non-EU: 13 | 非欧盟名额仅13席，僧多粥少导致非欧盟考生录取分数线居高不下 |
| Rome Tor Vergata | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 63.0 – 65.5 | 66.5 – 71.0 | EU: 65 / Non-EU: 20 | 罗马市中心备受瞩目的报考选择，分值区间保持平稳适中 |
| University of Milan-Bicocca | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 69.5 – 72.0 | 73.5 – 77.0 | EU: 40 / Non-EU: 20 | 伦巴第大区优质医学院，贝加莫合作医院实力强劲，名额少导致门槛偏高 |
| University of Padua (Padova) | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 66.0 – 68.5 | 73.0 – 77.0 | EU: 75 / Non-EU: 25 | 意大利北部首屈一指的研究型大学，常年稳居全意大利前5%高分梯队 |
| University of Turin (Orbassano) | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 64.0 – 66.5 | 72.0 – 75.0 | EU: 73 / Non-EU: 32 | 都灵圣路易吉贡扎加教学医院，小班精英化教学，综合声誉稳固 |
| University of Parma (Piacenza) | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 62.0 – 64.5 | 65.5 – 69.5 | EU: 80 / Non-EU: 50 | 提供50个非欧盟名额，是国际考生极具性价比的安全第一志愿缓冲带 |
| Naples Federico II | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 64.5 – 67.5 | 70.5 – 74.0 | EU: 35 / Non-EU: 45 | 南部历史最悠久的旗舰医学院，欧盟配额仅35席，考分居高不下 |
| Campania Luigi Vanvitelli (Caserta) | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 61.0 – 63.5 | 66.0 – 70.5 | EU: 70 / Non-EU: 50 | 卡泽塔校区拥有70个名额，充沛的招生量有效吸收了全国分数线上涨压力 |
| Marche Polytechnic (Ancona) | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 63.0 – 65.5 | 64.0 – 68.5 | EU: 30 / Non-EU: 50 | 亚得里亚海沿岸医学院，50个非欧盟席位构成了较为友好的区域录取梯度 |
| University of Messina | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 61.0 – 63.5 | 62.0 – 66.5 | EU: 55 / Non-EU: 61 | 全意大利非欧盟配额最大大学（61席），是非欧盟考生的定海神针 |
| University of Catania | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 62.5 – 65.5 | 62.0 – 66.5 | EU: 40 / Non-EU: 40 | 西西里岛现代化医疗中心，配额结构均衡合理 |
| University of Bari Aldo Moro | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 62.0 – 64.5 | 65.0 – 71.5 | EU: 89 / Non-EU: 11 | 非欧盟名额仅有11席，使得非欧盟录取分数极易受报考人数波动影响 |
| University of Cagliari | 第三梯队 (高容量保底) | 60.0 – 62.5 | 60.0 – 64.5 | EU: 80 / Non-EU: 18 | 全国统招榜单传统托底院校，补录轮次活跃度极高 |
| University of Siena (Dentistry) | 第四梯队 (特色项目) | 62.0 – 64.5 | 67.0 – 73.5 | EU: 30 / Non-EU: 5 | 口腔医学专业，非欧盟仅5个名额，波动性极强 |
| Sapienza Rome (Dentistry) | 第一梯队 (顶尖名校) | 63.0 – 66.5 | 76.0 – 80.5 | EU: 19 / Non-EU: 6 | 罗马一大口腔医学英语授课，首都极高吸引力维持高位 |
| University of Florence (2026 New) | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 64.0 – 67.5 | Non-EU: 0 (EU Only) | EU: 50 / Non-EU: 0 | 佛罗伦萨2026年全新开设课程，托斯卡纳热门区域带来中高录取分 |
| University of Padua MedTech (2026 New) | 第二梯队 (热门精选) | 65.0 – 68.5 | 70.0 – 74.0 | EU: 70 / Non-EU: 15 | 帕多瓦医工双学位创新项目，威尼斯教学医院吸引力极高 |
| Naples Federico II Veterinary (2026 New) | 第四梯队 (特色项目) | 55.5 – 59.5 | 51.0 – 58.0 | EU: 18 / Non-EU: 2 | 那不勒斯英语兽医学院，独立考生池，分数线较为温和 |
| University of Bologna Veterinary | 第四梯队 (特色项目) | 56.5 – 60.5 | 49.0 – 56.0 | EU: 45 / Non-EU: 5 | 博洛尼亚大学英语兽医，专业实力雄厚，为兽医考生的第一首选 |
| Tor Vergata Tirana Campus | 第四梯队 (特色项目) | EU: 0 (No seats) | 19.0 – 36.0 | EU: 0 / Non-EU: 320 | 地拉那合作校区，320个非欧盟名额，适合基础分考生确保入学 |
常见问题解答：IMAT 2026 成绩与录取分数线
Q1.这份录取预测表的准确度如何？
预测模型基于CINECA发布的18,368份匿名全量成绩，结合近三年各大学首轮和补录滚动数据测算。但非欧盟考生的志愿分布依然起关键作用。
Q2.什么时候公布全国实名总榜单？
10月19日可在Universitaly个人后台查询答题卡，10月26日教育部正式公布全国实名大榜单，11月3日开启第一轮补录。
Q3.欧盟名额与非欧盟名额录取机制有何不同？
欧盟生按照多志愿填报在全国统一榜单中竞争；非欧盟海外考生仅在自己预注册的第一志愿大学内部单独排队。
Q4.如果我的分数刚好处在预测分数线边缘该怎么办？
若处于预录取（PRENOTATO）或等待（IN ATTESA）状态，请务必在每周二中午12:00前登录后台点击确认继续等待（Conferma Interesse）。